If you don’t already know, the UK’s plan for Brexit following the referendum vote of ‘leave’ is spiralling quickly out of control. Basically, here’s what’s happened so far:
The public wants to leave. Well, at least they DID. (hmph…) Theresa May wants to respect this referendum vote and follow through with Brexit.
May has proposed a ‘chequers deal’ which is widely unliked by MPs in the commons - including those from the conservative party
Conservative party ministers disliked this proposed deal so much that a whole bunch of them resigned from their posts on the 15th of November this year - Including Dominic Raab, the former Brexit Secretary. bruh.
There will be a vote in the House of Commons on this deal on the 11th of December (this Tuesday!!)
Evidently, we are not in the best of predicaments. Especially considering that it’s almost IMPOSSIBLE for this chequers deal to be passed, considering it only needs 7 Tory rebels for it to fail. Just to put this into perspective, there is an estimated 83 (!!!!!!!!) Conservative MPs who plan to vote against the deal on the 11th.
So! The media has speculated and come up with a load of different paths this could take - some saying that May will try and buy time and renegotiate the issue involving the backstop in Northern Ireland, hoping that more MPs will side with her once something more favourable is worked out regarding this. I think this ‘Plan-B’ is unlikely, Brussels has already told us this is a no-no and that they will not give much leeway on this topic.
Alas… what is May to do? To be honest - NOT MUCH. I don’t think anyone will let her. Without further ado, this is MY prediction for the upcoming course of events concerning Brexit:
1) May will not get her deal passed in the HoC on the 11th. Simple as. She does not have anywhere near the numbers for this to be a possibility.
2) In the 14 day period after this, the government will NOT lose a vote of no confidence, but neither Corbyn nor May will be able to secure a positive vote of confidence, so a national-unity government will be formed instead. WILD, I know, but there really is no obvious successor to May, unless another Conservative MP wins a positive vote of confidence (which is again, unlikely and… well… just really unexpected and odd). Basically, what this means is that a government coalition of all parties will be formed in order to deal with this more effectively. In my opinion, this would be a wise choice. Coalitions are pretty great, though it could potentially lead to an even further stalemate in negotiations.
3) There will not be a second referendum at this point due to lack of time and democratic legitimacy as it disregards the result of the first referendum. May has already shown her reluctance to do so, despite the overwhelming demands from the public and media - The Independent even started a petition! She’s called it a ‘betrayal of trust’ that ‘will not happen under any circumstances’. Even without May as leader, there just simply isn’t enough time before the 29th of March when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.
4) The house will be reluctant to leave on a no-deal basis so will instead try a much softer Brexit in the style of Norway by joining the European Economic Area, so that the UK gets its 'Brexit' but on a surface level only, remaining in the EU single-market. Not popular with British fishermen, but its a conclusion which protects the UK’s economy somewhat and still kind of sorts out the Brexit sitch at least temporarily.
Of course, this might not happen at all. It’s a pretty intense prediction, but one I stand by! YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST!